Having been involved for decades in the financial research and services industries, we understand certain hard truths about successful investment.
For starters, no one has a crystal ball when it comes to a complex system such as globally intertwined investment markets.
A back-office event in Beijing or Washington, DC can send a stock soaring… or sour the best-laid investment plans.
Success, therefore, requires close attention to processes proven over time to be effective.
Before any investment is recommended by Garret/Galland, it is vetted using the following tools, as well as our mandatory three-step process:
A network of personal and professional relationships dating back decades. This network is an invaluable and irreproducible resource to identify new investment ideas and help double-check our assumptions about virtually any potential investment.
Our network includes multi-billion dollar bond managers and specialists in derivatives, real estate, emerging markets, value investing, technical analysis, commodities trading, gold mining, domestic and offshore banking, options, collectibles, and likely every other investment you can name.
These are not “soft” contacts, but individuals—in many cases, good friends—in positions of power at some of the most prominent specialist firms in the world. We receive their research and can (and do) call them as needed.
Data Dashboard. A collection of fundamental and technical research data are constantly monitored to serve as our “early warning” system. This ensures we stay ahead of the market when there is potential for exceptional promise or burgeoning risk.
Proven Research. There is a tremendous amount of research unleashed into the world each and every day, much of which falls into the category of “opinion” and not much more. Over decades, we have learned to discern research sources worthy of attention, and our analysts focus primarily on those.
These tools assist us in forming core investment themes. Within those themes, we then turn our attention to finding the most compelling investments. This brings us to…
Our Proprietary Three-Step Process:
As a client you can be assured that you will never hear about an investment from us unless it has first been scrutinized using the following three-step process.
As a subscriber, this powerful tool is deployed for your direct benefit.
Every investment identified by an analyst must be consistent with one of the Garret/Galland Research Core Themes. If not, a detailed exceptions analysis must be provided and accepted as credible by the investment committee.
Every investment must be run through the CIQS Model. This proprietary quantitative model screens each investment for 56 different analytical inputs, which in extensive back-testing and real world use has proven remarkably effective. Below is an excerpt from a senior analyst involved in the back-testing of the CIQS Model on a portfolio of stocks:
In one test we randomly selected 20 stocks from the S&P 500 and put them through the CIQS Model as if we had invested in them at three separate starting points: in January of 2005, 2011, and 2015. We then measured the returns using six different time periods ranging from three months to three years in length.
We found that stocks scoring above 55 on the CIQS, on average, delivered a 6.96% excess return over stocks scoring below 55 and, on average, 8.06% excess return over the S&P 500 over the same periods.
By investing in stocks with a CIQS score above 55, you would have increased your return, on average, by 8% over the returns from the broad S&P 500 index.
Extending the results out to a 20-year period shows that $10,000 invested in a portfolio of stocks rated over 55 by the CIQS screening model would have produced a compounded annual return of 16.32%.
With those returns, your $10,000 grows into $205,608.
By comparison, $10,000 invested in the S&P would have grown to just $48,166.
- Every investment recommendation must be authorized by the investment committee—headed up by Olivier Garret and David Galland. This is our guarantee to you that the principals of our firm always pay close personal attention to the work our analysts do and the recommendations they make.
Of course, past performance can be no guarantee of future success and even the soundest investment rationale will be tripped up periodically by the unforeseeable.
That said, decades of experience have convinced us that by rigorously adhering to our processes, the odds of producing above market returns—and more importantly, avoiding steep losses—are greatly improved.